The Theory of Change outlined here is a holistic approach to address ivory trafficking, encompassing strategies such as the maintenance of the international moratorium on commercial ivory trade, the closure of domestic ivory markets, and prevention of the economic use of ivory stockpiles. The goal is to disrupt the entire supply chain, and to strengthen enforcement measures, which, combined with raised awareness and cultural changes, will ultimately lead to a significant decline in demand, resulting in the collapse of global ivory prices and, consequently, a reduction in poaching.
The international ban on commercial ivory trade provides the foundation for the closure of domestic markets, and helps strengthen legal frameworks and penalty systems, while improving collaborative enforcement between countries along the entire ivory value chain. In other words, it strengthens deterrence on the supply side of the trade. Moreover, the international ban sends a strong message to the public - maintaining and increasing awareness and creating social pressure – thereby also affecting the demand side of the trade. The ban can be difficult to enforce, but evidence that it has worked to reduce the demand for ivory has been well documented, with the decline of the ivory market in Japan as one of the best examples (Thomas-Walters et al., 2023).
Domestic ivory markets, regardless of their legality, provide poachers and other actors in the value chain with opportunities to buy and sell ivory without oversight. Between 1989 and 2007, elephant range states with domestic ivory markets experienced a 58% decline in elephant populations on average, whereas those without saw an average 65% increase (Lemieux & Clarke, 2009). Even the presence of a single domestic ivory market within a given region tends to stimulate poaching and trafficking of ivory in nearby countries. Thus, the closing of domestic ivory markets is an important step in reducing the poaching of elephants and trafficking of ivory, but it must be accompanied by the strengthening of wildlife laws and penalties. Without sufficient deterrence, trade in ivory moves under the radar.
Placing ivory stockpiles beyond economic use is part of a broader strategy to address the root causes of elephant poaching and ivory trafficking. Sales from stockpiles perpetuate the demand for ivory and thus contribute to the decline of elephant populations. If we can keep ivory from stockpiles off the market, we also encourage the development of ethical, legal, and sustainable practices, and alternative sources of income for communities hitherto involved in the ivory trade.
The destruction of ivory stockpiles aligns with international laws and agreements, most particularly CITES, which prohibits the international commercial trade of ivory (Scanlon et al., 2023). Moreover, destruction of confiscated ivory (CITES Resolution Conf. 17.8) sends a strong message that the international community condemns poaching and the trade of ivory.
Although this is unlikely to discourage poachers and traffickers, it raises public awareness, thereby affecting the demand side of the trade. It informs the public about the plight of elephants and the consequences of illegal trade, while stimulating discussions on the importance of conservation and the need to protect endangered species. The purpose of the National Elephant Action Plans (NEAPs) is to help EPI member states identify and prioritise actions to protect, manage, and monitor their elephants in line with the African Elephant Action Plan (AEAP). NEAPs are intended to present a cohesive and comprehensive body of work necessary to conserve a range state’s elephants. This includes the reduction in poaching and illicit trade in ivory (Objective 3 of the 2023 revised AEAP) and strengthened international collaboration to improve law enforcement along the entire ivory value chain (Objective 6 of the AEAP), improved cooperation and collaboration with communities (Objective 7) and minimising human-elephant conflict (Objective 1). Thus, a NEAP is an overarching tool to reduce both the supply and demand sides of the ivory trade.
Last but not least is the EPI’s objective to mitigate and reduce human-elephant conflict (HEC) in our member states, to facilitate coexistence between people and elephants, prevent death or injury to people, and reduce the retaliatory killing of elephants and poaching, as well as affecting a positive change in attitudes towards elephant conservation. This comprehensive theory of change aims to address ivory trafficking through a multi-faceted approach, recognising the interconnectedness of supply and demand, the importance of international cooperation and national action, and the need for sustained efforts across sectors to protect elephants and their habitats.
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